The Long Blonde Tail

This Weekend in NYC: BarCampNYC3 + VRM Meetup

I have a strong suspicion that there will be a lot of happy geeks in NYC this weekend.

On the heels of SXSW comes BarCampNYC3, which will take place at Polytechnic University in Brooklyn. Although it's sold out at this point, you can always hit the wiki to get on the waiting list (or send a convincing email to one of the very cool organizers).

Schedule permitting, I will be there to chat about VRM (Vendor Relationship Management) along with friend and colleague, Adriana Lukas. Described very well by Ian Delaney of New Media Knowledge, VRM is:

about you controlling how organisations/ companies/ brands communicate with you. Giving back the power to the consumer. The implications of the current thinking have as much power as blogs and blogging - they're the end-game of the 'Cluetrain Manifesto' and 'Permission Marketing'.

It's real, and coming soon. It's new media punk rock.

Much more to come on this. In the meantime, if this sounds interesting, there's another chance to talk VRM with Adriana (very sorry to miss this sit-down) during an informal gathering on Friday, March 14th. More details are here.

Further deets:

Informal VRM Gathering
Friday, March 14, 2008
6:30pm - ?
Location: TBD
Sign up on the Wiki

BarCampNYC3
Begins: March 15, 2008 at 11:00 am ET
Ends: March 16, 2008 at 6:00 pm ET
Location: Polytechnic University in Brooklyn, NY
Proposed Topics

Peter Voss: Increased Intelligence, Improved Life

Peter Voss, founder of Adaptive AI and speaker at this year's Singularity Summit, believes that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) promises unprecedented advances, not only in science and technology, but also in ethics and social systems.

He also believes that businesses (and thus, consumers) will be first to experience some of the enormous benefits of this emerging technology. His talk centered on these improvements, as well as making a case for how increased intelligence leads to improved morality.

Stick with me on this one.

In addition to other Singularity Summit speakers, Voss spoke about the business benefits of AGI, which include:

* dramatically reduced labor costs (one of the largest costs of many businesses)
* improved quality of design in products & services
* reduced workers' risks: this trend will accelerate

This accelerating improvement will come about because many of the systems within companies will have fewer and fewer humans in the critical timing loops.

In this context, humans are often the slowest link in the chain - and the least reliable link in the chain. Therefore, as more and more systems are automated (or, as humans are taken out of the loop), that will lead to an accelerated improvement. Why? Peter Voss quietly, yet matter-of-factly gave this explanation (what may have been the quote of the year) to the audience:

Human intelligence really is a big bottleneck for many of the problems that humanity faces.

Other aspects of industry - and humanity - which will benefit from AGI:

Science and technology
* AGI will accelerate the development of nanotechnology

Environmental technology
* Not only will we have much better models about environmental issues, we'll also have better technology to prevent environmental damage, and to clean it up

Computer science
* If you have systems that approach human-level intelligence, even if they're not generally capable as humans, if they can think and reason and learn like humans - at a certain point in development, they'll be able to improve their own design.

To drive home the point, Voss also read an excerpt from an essay he'd written on AGI and life extension:

Imagine 100,000 PhD-level researchers focusing their total efforts on life extension and anti-aging research. Imagine them working 24/7 with no distraction from grant proposals, office politics, or attractive coworkers. Imagine the fantastic progress we would see in finding solutions for eliminating debilitating disease and reversing the effects of aging. 

If you really think through how intelligent systems, and having hundreds of thousands of Ph.D level brains working 24/7 at solving aging problems and disease, clearly we will see significant progress. These are difficult problems, and we need more brain power to address them.

Now, apply that same theory to education ('now, imagine 100,000 teachers...').

Ethics and morality, and how AGI will make us better people:
* we can also use AGI tools to vastly improve our ability to think and to reason things through: 

A significant proportion of immoral behavior is really irrational behavior; that often when somebody does something bad, how often is it because they didn't think it through properly, they didn't have enough information, or didn't get good advice? A lot of immoral behavior really falls into that category.

 

AGI will get to know us, and become a 'trusted adviser' to us.  It'll help us become better people.

 

In adding his own prediction of how far away we are from AGI, Peter Voss is even more daring than most: he believes it is most certainly 10 years -- and quite likely less than five.

 

Investors, CEOs - Listen Up: AI's Benefits to Business

In continuation of what I've learned, and am beginning to absorb, understand, and evangelize after attending this year's Singularity Summit, I live twittered a few profound thoughts spoken by some of the presenters. One of them was from Neil Jacobstein, CEO of Palo Alto based Teknowledge:

Another belief about AI is that it’s all hype. It’s boom and bust from the 1980’s and although there was a lot of that, early AI is in routine use in many domains. It’s already produced billions, with a ‘b’, worth of value. And writing off AI is a little like writing off ecommerce after the dot com meltdown.

Of the presenters that I heard speak, or had met (note: I attended only Saturday's sessions), Mr. Jacobstein was one who answered the question "So, what does all of this really mean, for me?" ...whether you were asking this question as a CEO, an investor, or practically anyone outside the "singularity circle" of thinkers.

He decided to perform a study on the application domains - or the areas of focus of these AI applications. In particular, Jacobstein studied the ones between 1986 and 2006 (there were a total of 362), and found, unsurprisingly, that the most common area was computers and software engineering. This was followed by manufacturing, military, finance applications, business operations, telecommunications, arts and media, health care, space, ground transportation, airlines, education, sales, biotech, insurance, energy, emergency management, security, law, agriculture, chemical engineering, paleontology and treaty verification.

The tasks that these systems perform are largely focused around planning and scheduling, data interpretation, information retrieval, classification, performance optimization, etc.

Mr. Jacobstein explained:

When we consider the value-added by AI and these applications, they’re in augmenting or replacing human skills, which allows you to:

- improve accuracy and consistency

- decrease costs

- increase productivity

- accelerate process timing

- improve product + service quality

- expand the range of the possible

Now, here's where you want to pay attention:

It doesn’t just do more, faster, better. It helps institutions manage their knowledge.

One early expert system example is BP’s VIDES (visual identification expert system) which does micro fossil identification system associated with rich oil fields to drill in. This system was basically constructed to eliminate delays in the process of figuring out where to drill. One day of delays cost $1 million; BP reported that one particular delay cost the company $15 million. VIDES acts as a ‘member of the team’, and has virtually eliminated identification delays.

"It doesn't do more, faster, better. It helps institutions manage their knowledge." Worth repeating. Do I have your attention yet?

 

 

Machines of Loving Grace: Anticipating Advanced AI

Paul Saffo, Consulting Professor at Stanford University, had a compelling message at the 2007 Singularity Summit - one which really hit home with me (and I would imagine others, like me, who are not scientists, have not been studying and/or practicing AI, and who are most curious about how this will affect our future, and the future of humanity):

A long-anticipated vision of advanced AI is on the verge of arriving late and in utterly unexpected ways. As we approach this event, a quick look through the rear-view mirror at earlier AI visions can do much to reduce the uncertainty around how things may unfold.

Moreover, these earlier visions are a powerful reminder that we are not hapless bystanders, but active participants in what this future should look like. Just as William Gibson once served up the vision of cyberspace that shaped the 1990's Internet revolution, a poet writing almost exactly 40 years ago from San Francisco penned his vision for what a world of advanced AI should be.

The poet Saffo speaks of is one Mr. Richard Brautigan. This poem (1967), read aloud by Saffo at the conference, is well-worthy of being shared, here:

All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace
I like to think (and
the sooner the better!)
of a cybernetic meadow
where mammals and computers
live together in mutually
programming harmony
like pure water
touching clear sky.

I like to think
     (right now please!)
of a cybernetic forest
filled with pines and electronics
where deer stroll peacefully
past computers
as if they were flowers
with spinning blossoms.

I like to think
     (it has to be!)
of a cybernetic ecology
where we are free of our labors
and joined back to nature,
returned to our mammal
brothers and sisters,
and all watched over
by machines of loving grace.

After reading the poem, and driving home his point that what is missing today - for the case of AI - is a positive, compelling vision, Saffo asked the attendees to start a to-do list. Of course this would include talking to VCs, engineers and technologists, designers and so on. But even more importantly, he added:

We need more poets and novelists to explore this field. To think freely about it could be. Just whisper in their ear.

- - -
Bonus: Saffo may have discovered what was the first 'Creative Commons' licensing effort in Brautigan's work:

San Francisco, California: The Communication Company, 1967�
Limited Edition of 1,500 copies, all for free distribution

Ben Goertzel: The Singularity is Closer Than You Think

I had the extreme pleasure of meeting Dr. Ben Goertzel the evening before his presentation at this year's Singularity Summit.

Interestingly, he has a slightly different interpretation to his counterparts as to when the Singularity will come about. Prolific inventor and visionary Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity is Near, believes:

By 2045 (the Singularity), machine intelligence will exceed all human biological intelligence a billion fold.

Most AI experts believe it is 20-40 years away. Says Ben:

Common wisdom holds that powerful artificial general intelligence (AGI) is decades to centuries off. Even techno-futurist Ray Kurzweil projects a date of 2029 for human-level AI via human brain emulation. My contention, however, is that powerful and beneficial AGI could come much sooner - if sufficient attention and resources are devoted to the right approaches.

Of course, it is difficult to place any kind o reliable estimate on the course of development of this kind of technology, given the R&D that remains to be done, and the uncertainties regarding funding and other practical exigencies. But radical success within less than a decade does not seem an outrageously unlikely possibility, in the view of one AGI researcher and entrepreneur.

In fact, the title of his presentation was "Nine Years to a Positive Singularity - If We Really, Really Try." Why nine? As he humorously explained, the title of his presentation last year, of course, was "Ten Years to a Positive Singularity, If We Really, Really Try."

The Novamente project, which he leads as CSO (chief science officer) and CEO, has a long term goal of "creating artificial general intelligence approaching then exceeding the human level". The Incremental Path, then, will:

roll out  a series on increasingly intelligent embodied virtual agents in 2D and 3D virtual worlds.

Ben believes that users of virtual worlds today are AI's teachers. And, he believes firmly in harnessing the wisdom of crowds. Three  plugs for Ben and co.:

- OpenCog: open source approach to AGI, to launch in 2008
- Virtual Worlds Conference, October 10, 2007 in San Jose, CA
- AGI '08, March 1-3 in Memphis, TN

Jamais Cascio: "Singularity Must Be Open: Transparent, Participatory, Available to All"

During his speech at the 2007 Singularity Summit, Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies Fellow Jamais Cascio focused on the Metaverse, and open access to Singularity.

His message was twofold. First, on the Metaverse:

There are numerous scenarios for how the Singularity might transpire, but implicit in most is the notion that the technologies that trigger the Singularity themselves emerge from earlier generations of systems and tools. One particularly rich potential progenitor is the spectrum of technologies encompassed by the term "Metaverse."

Cascio traced how each of the four Metaverse scenarios lead to very different types of Singularities:

Virtual Worlds: simulation + increase of immersive network environments (e.g., Second Life)
Mirror Worlds: simulation + enhanced virtual technologies (e.g., Google Earth)
Augmented Reality: depth, not flows
Lifelogging: augmentation + intimate technology

However the strongest and most passionate point of his presentation was "opening the conversation" of Singularity. I live twittered his point, that:

It would be profoundly unethical to try and make it happen without involving all the stakeholders in the process. And we are all stakeholders in the future.

On how to democratize the Singularity:

- there must be a global inclusion of interests
- create relevant software models
- open access to information-laden risks makes them more manageable, not less

Cascio's closing point: if the Singularity is, in fact, near - then Singularity must be open. It must be transparent, participatory, and available to all. Hmm. Where have we heard that before? ;-)

[More on the Singularity Summit.]

The Singularity, AI + the Future of Humanity, and Why You Should Pay Attention

If you invent a breakthrough in artificial intelligence, so machines can learn, that is worth 10 Microsofts. --Bill Gates

This past weekend I was invited by Bruce Klein to attend not only the 2007 Singularity Summit, but the  pre-Summit cocktail party at the home of Peter Thiel in San Francisco's Marina district. While, admittedly, I had previously lacked a deep knowledge and understanding of The Singularity, I did understand this: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Future of Humanity was something that I needed to pay attention to, and learn more about.

And that, I did. Gratefully so. From the brief conversations I had with several of the speakers at the cocktail party (thanks to Susan Fonseca-Klein for gracefully leading the way) to the intense education I received during the Summit's first day, I realized the extreme importance of AI, how it affects and relates to our future (and present), and how important it is that others gain an understanding -- and why they should pay attention, too.

In its simplest definition, the Singularity is "the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence." As MIT's Dr. Rodney Brooks explains,

The singularity period will encompass a time where a collection of technologies were invented, developed and deployed in fits and starts, driven not by the imperative of singularity itself, but by the normal economic and sociological pressures of human affairs.

This, then, summarizes the reason I have made this a priority:

it seems like a good guess that many supporters of the Singularity have in common a sense of being present at a critical moment in history; of having the chance to win a victory for humanity by making the right choices for the right reasons. Like a spectator at the dawn of human intelligence, trying to answer directly why superintelligence matters chokes on a dozen different simultaneous replies; what matters is the entire future growing out of that beginning.

As Seth Godin once said, "it is the edges that people stand in line. It is the edges where people notice you." Singularity, then, is the fringes. And it is in the fringes where the few 'see' and act on the present future. It is in the fringes where most, because it is so foreign, can't 'see' it - and turn away.

In the coming days and weeks, I will continue posting on this topic, the speakers, and the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence. I will also continue my education, and share what I learn, here. For more interesting coverage, see the AP, Wired, Forbes, and bloggers Renee Blodgett (great seeing her again), Dan Farber, the Daily Galaxy and Betterhumans.

BarCampBlock: BarCamp Anniversary Block Party

If you're going to be anywhere near the vicinity of Silicon Valley in mid August, mark your calendar for the 18th + 19th. That's when the next BarCamp anniversary bash takes place. If you're somehow unfamiliar with it, BarCamp is:

an ad-hoc gathering born from the desire for people to share and learn in an open environment. It is an intense event with discussions, demos, and interaction from attendees.

SocialText will again host the event, but that's just the beginning. This year (which sounds like a whole lot of fun), it will:

take place full circle back in the same place it started: SocialText's offices... and spilling out into the streets! Yep. We will be working with SocialText to get this puppy off the ground with the goal of having a multi-office party starting SocialText's offices... and maybe looping in nearby neighbors like Facebook, iMeem, IDEO, Edgeio and so on.

Go here to register, and here to add yourself to the wiki. Volunteers (and other help) are needed, so if you can, lend a hand! By all means, spread the good word.

Waxxi’s New, Shorter Interview: the ‘Sweet Spot’

There are a few things brewing at Waxxi. One of them, [I] can talk about here. Others will have to wait, just a while longer.

While we’ll continue our typical 30+ minute interactive podcasts with very interesting people, we’ll also begin a shorter version, called the Sweet Spot. The idea is micro-consumption: an interesting snapshot of cool, smart people which you can read, listen to, or watch in five minutes (or so).

We’ll be announcing a lineup soon, but here we’ll let you in on one of our first guests: Twitter co-founder, and genius   , Biz Stone. Have a question for Biz? Simply leave a comment here, DM me on Twitter here, or message me on Facebook here (guest suggestions may also be submitted in the same manner).

Originally blogged at Socially Speaking.

Twitter+Facebook+Jaiku+Pownce = Social Network Fatigue

BlueNote has added you as a Friend on Facebook!

You are Socrates' newest friend! (on Twitter)

If you're someone connected in the, well, connected world online, then undoubtedly you've seen more than a few of these email alerts. What they are, for those who have not yet delved, are hopeful "friend" invites into the worlds of various social networks.

In the beginning, it's actually quite exciting. It's fun. And it's social value.

But, now, after MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, and Jaiku have emerged - as if we needed it - Pownce (another Twitter competitor) surfaces, from the hand of Digg founder Kevin Rose. Another space online in which we need to add more friends and friend more friends? Accept invites and scour the network to find friends? Maybe. And then again, maybe not.

Just yesterday, says TechCrunch's Michael Arrington (on Twitter):

maybe it's me, but I can't take all the pownce invites coming in. no...more...social...networks...

That's a more serious statement than it appears, coming from Mr. Arrington - someone, who by virtue of his role, must understand, connect and be connected in virtually every social space online.

Many, including Slashdot, ZDNet, and a slew of others have been contemplating social network fatigue recently. How much is too much? And what happens once social network fatigue really does set in?

Danah Boyd's theory, "users aren't going to tire of their friends but they will tire of problematic social spaces that make hanging out with friends difficult." The question I tend to ponder, however, is one first posed by Read/WriteWeb's Richard MacManus: "Could social networks prove to be anti-social?" ;-)

Originally guest-blogged at The Daily Galaxy.